With more data emerging, Dubai’s real estate market maturity is becoming clearer. Recent findings show that in Q3, 40% of ready-to-move-in homes sold below Dh1 million.
The ValuStrat Price Index (VPI) for residential capital values rose to 190.1 points, reflecting a quarterly increase of 6.7% and an annual rise of 28.9%, with the Q1 2021 benchmark set at 100 points.
In Dubai’s freehold villa communities, 98% of homes have doubled in value since 2020-2021, surpassing price peaks from a decade ago, while apartments, comprising over 80% of housing stock (excluding Palm Jumeirah), have yet to reach these levels.
Capital values for villas hit 243.2 VPI points, indicating a yearly growth of 33.1% and a quarterly increase of 7.4%, underscoring the villa market’s strong momentum. Palm Jumeirah (42.8%), Jumeirah Islands (42.3%), and Emirates Hills (33.8%) topped the annual gains, while Mudon (20.4%) and Jumeirah Village Triangle (20%) showed the smallest increases.
Apartment values rose to 24.8% annually, up from 23.4% in the previous quarter. Discovery Gardens (33.5%), The Greens (33%), Palm Jumeirah (30.9%), Al Quoz Fourth (29.5%), and Town Square (28.6%) led yearly growth, while Jumeirah Beach Residence (17.6%), Dubai Sports City (17.8%), and International City (18.1%) saw the lowest gains.
Prime property valuations reached 197.8 points, with annual growth of 30.7% and quarterly growth of 7.3%, evaluated against a 100-point baseline from Q1 2021.
All villa communities monitored exceeded their 2014 highs, with the prime villa market reaching 248.8 points, recording annual gains of 38.1% and quarterly growth of 8.3%.
Dubai’s luxury apartment capital values rose by 24.7% annually and 6.5% from Q2, reaching 166.6 points. Palm Jumeirah was the first neighborhood to see apartment prices exceed 2014 highs.
An estimated 35,524 new units are expected to enter the market this year. As of the first nine months of 2024, 13,217 apartments and 3,751 villas have been completed, achieving 48% of the initial projections.
There are currently 30,272 villas and 98,253 apartments under construction, expected to be completed by 2028. Jumeirah Village Circle hosts 11% of these projects, with Business Bay and Jumeirah Lake Towers holding 9% and 5%, respectively.
In Q3, off-plan (Oqood) registrations reached a record 32,968, marking a 97% YoY and 32% QoQ increase, with investments totaling Dh83.2 billion. According to ValuStrat, the average price for off-plan homes decreased by 19.8% YoY to Dh2.5 million, with an average sale price of Dh19,537 per square meter (Dh1,815 per square foot) across Dubai.
Data reveals 12,883 ready secondary home transactions in Q3, totaling Dh29.8 billion in investments, up 11.9% from the previous quarter and 19.4% from the previous year.
The average ticket size for ready properties dropped 9.2% quarterly to Dh2.3 million, remaining stable annually, with 41% of sales priced under Dh1 million.
In the luxury sector, 53 homes valued at over Dh30 million were sold, compared to 62 in the same period last year. ValuStrat data shows the average price for ready units citywide was Dh15,414 per square meter (Dh1,432 per square foot), a 7.1% increase YoY but a 5.5% quarterly decrease.
In Q3, apartments averaged 95.4 square meters (1,027 square feet), and villas averaged 294.9 square meters (3,174 square feet).
Dubai Marina (5.6%), Business Bay (5.6%), and Jumeirah Village Circle (9.1%) recorded the highest transaction rates for available properties.
In Q3 2024, Dubai’s real estate market saw 10,118 mortgage transactions and 14,977 cash transactions of ready properties, with cash sales totaling Dh28 billion and mortgage sales at Dh19 billion.
“The market has increasingly shifted toward mid-market and affordable apartments, with the smallest average home sizes and a decline in sales prices per square foot for the first time this year. Dubai’s real estate market achieved significant milestones in Q3 2024, with rapid population growth and reduced interest rates fueling the market upswing. Dubai’s property market hit new records in Q3 2024, with villas outpacing apartments and notable growth across the office, hospitality, and warehouse sectors,” said Haider Tuaima, director of real estate research, ValuStrat.
