Dubai’s Property Prices Could Double in Five Years, Says Driven CEO
Dubai’s real estate sector may witness property prices doubling over the next five years, according to Abdullah Alajaji, CEO and founder of Driven | Forbes Global Properties.
This projection comes on the back of strong recent growth in the emirate’s property market. In 2024, Dubai saw 217,000 real estate investments totaling AED 526 billion, marking a 38% rise in transaction count and a 27% increase in value, based on government data.
However, Alajaji believes there is still significant room for growth. Launching a new report comparing Dubai to top-tier global cities earlier this week, he emphasized that property values in Dubai remain considerably lower than those in cities like New York and Singapore.
“If Dubai properties are still priced at one-fifth of major global cities, and the cap rates here are more than twice as high, we anticipate continued price appreciation,” Alajaji told Gulf Business.
Cap rates, which represent the income return on a property relative to its price, are key to his reasoning.
“The cap rate refers to the yield a property offers compared to its full market value,” he explained. “For instance, if a property yields $50,000 annually and is valued at $1 million, the cap rate is 5%.”
He also noted that current market conditions differ from earlier real estate cycles. “I’d compare today’s market to the pre-2008 period. Back then, prices surged 30–40% across the board — whether it was JVC or Palm Jumeirah — despite much lower rental yields. Today, rent levels have risen alongside property prices, indicating genuine demand.”
Dubai Edging Closer to Tier-1 City Status
Driven’s newly launched report, Dubai on the Verge of Tier-1 City Recognition, introduces the firm’s Tier-1 City Index. The index compares Dubai to New York, London, Paris, Singapore, Sydney, and Hong Kong using 28 criteria, including infrastructure, lifestyle quality, safety, economic strength, and global relevance.
Among the seven cities, Dubai ranked fifth, performing notably well in infrastructure (2nd), international appeal (3rd), and both safety and quality of life (4th).
Alajaji also pointed to Dubai’s robust transactional performance.
“Last year, Dubai’s property transaction value hit nearly $200 billion — three times that of London,” he said. “That demonstrates maturity, liquidity, and real depth in the market.”
According to the report, 43% of participants believe Dubai’s property market is fairly priced, while 35% see it as somewhat overvalued. Only 11% consider it undervalued.
In terms of sentiment, Alajaji sees a steadying market. “My strategy in this environment would be to focus on locations with limited availability of new development land,” he noted.
Confident in Dubai’s prospects, he added: “We’re committed to the city’s growth. We believe in it, we’re passionate about it, and we genuinely enjoy being part of its progress — so we’ll keep investing here.”
